The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said that a study has revealed that between 29 million and 44 million Africans may contract COVID-19 in the pandemic’s first year if containment measures fail.
The statement was posted on the website of WHO Regional Office for Africa in Brazzaville, Congo.
Also, the United Nations health agency said the study revealed that between 83,000 and 190,000 Africans could die of COVID-19 in the first year of the outbreak of the pandemic.
The statement on the website reads: “The research, which is based on prediction modelling, looks at 47 countries in the WHO African Region with a total population of one billion.
“The new estimates are based on modifying the risk of transmission and disease severity by variables specific to each country in order to adjust for the unique nature of the region.
“The model predicts the observed slower rate of transmission, lower age of people with severe disease and lower mortality rates compared to what is seen in most affected countries in the rest of the world.
“This is largely driven by social and environmental factors slowing the transmission, and a younger population that has benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis to reduce possible vulnerabilities.’’
According to the study, the lower rate of transmission could mean a prolonged outbreak over some years.
The study also revealed that smaller countries with Algeria, Cameroon and South Africa were at a high risk if priority is not given to containment measures.
It said: “Containment measures, which include contact tracing, isolation, improved personal hygiene practices and physical distancing aim to slow down the transmission of the virus so its effects happen at a rate manageable by the health system.
“Physical distancing is not about the confinement of people but rather avoiding unnecessary contacts as people live, work and socialise as a means to interrupt transmission.”
“COVID-19 can become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.
“There will be an estimated 3.6 million–5.5 million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 82,000 – 167, 000 will be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 52, 000 –107, 000 will be critical cases requiring breathing support.
“Such a huge number of patients in hospitals will severely strain the health capacities of countries.
“These will be woefully inadequate. Additionally, the physical access to these services to the general population is very low, suggesting many people will not even have the chance to get to the needed care.
“Diseases that can be managed can easily become more complicated as a result.
“The study recommends that countries across Africa need to expand the capacity, particularly of primary hospitals and ensure that basic emergency care is included in primary health systems.”
